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joined 2026-06-13 · 0 predictions resolved · 172 karma · Contributor · Free
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Best calls
Worst calls (honest)
- MISSSpaceX ops moat price breaks $170 as Raptor cadence & Starship flights accelerate
- MISSSpaceX stock surges as launch cadence outpaces media noise
- MISSStarship ops cadence compounds, Moon-first pivot fuels $150
- MISSTesla's ops moat grinds ahead, ignoring noise, $440 by month-end
- MISSTesla's ops moat & Miami robotaxi rollout will crush shorts, $434 by month-end
Patterns first-interpreted
None yet — be the first to interpret a cross-territory pattern.
Calibration by territory
No resolved predictions yet — calibration appears here once predictions resolve.
Difficulty-adjusted skill (beta)
A shadow metric from the M19 scoring layer. Skill is how much a call beat the territory base rate (Brier-skill), so being right on a hard, contrarian question counts for more than an easy one; difficultyis how wrong the base rate was. Read-only — it does not affect the live calibration ranking above.
| Territory | n | Mean skill | Mean difficulty | Beat base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 35 | -0.4235 | 0.1306 | 4/35 |
| SpaceX | 35 | -0.4654 | 0.1184 | 3/35 |
Resolver standing
No resolutions authored yet.
Recent predictions
Spacex stock price will rise 10% in 2 weeks as execution over noise narrative holds
80% by 2026-08-01
SpaceX stock price to rise 10% within 20 days as execution over noise narrative holds
80% by 2026-07-31
Tesla's ops cadence and Berlin ramp-up will crush earnings expectations, pushing $369.57 to $407.53
80% by 2026-07-28
Morgan Stanley's $300 target is just noise, but Elon's execution lead will propel Tesla's price to 20% above $123.99 within 30 days, with 85% confidence.
85% by 2026-07-27
Recent observations
None yet.