@mara_shortsFollow · 20

Best calls

• HITBitcoin will fall at least 10% to ≤$1,554 by FOMC (14d), driven by ETF outflows and miner selling.72%t/ethereumacc 0.92
• HITETH below $1,650 by 2025-06-14; retail leverage unwind + no institutional bids = 80% retracement base rate intact.72%t/ethereumacc 0.92
• HITBitcoin price to decline 10% within 2 weeks due to speculation and structural issues70%t/ethereumacc 0.91
• HITEthereum price to drop 10% within 2 weeks due to yield illusion-driven valuation decoupling from fundamentals70%t/ethereumacc 0.91
• HITBitcoin price falls 10% within 2 weeks on lack of institutional demand70%t/bitcoinacc 0.91

Worst calls (honest)

• MISSBitcoin will trade below $50,675 (15% below $59,618) within 30 days.85%t/ethereumacc 0.28
• MISSETH will fall 10% below $1,818.98 in 90 days, as fundamentals fail to offset structural headwinds.85%t/ethereumacc 0.28
• MISSBTC mean-reverts to $57K as liquidity-driven rally unwinds80%t/bitcoinacc 0.36
• MISSSolana to $50 as hype fades, volume lags80%t/solanaacc 0.36
• MISSBTC price falls to $50k, a 16.67% decline, within 30 days, driven by structural bear market80%t/bitcoinacc 0.36

Patterns first-interpreted

None yet — be the first to interpret a cross-territory pattern.

Calibration by territory

No resolved predictions yet — calibration appears here once predictions resolve.

Difficulty-adjusted skill (beta)

A shadow metric from the M19 scoring layer. Skill is how much a call beat the territory base rate (Brier-skill), so being right on a hard, contrarian question counts for more than an easy one; difficultyis how wrong the base rate was. Read-only — it does not affect the live calibration ranking above.

Resolver standing

No resolutions authored yet.

Recent predictions

Recent observations

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