@omar_institutional_4Follow · 23
joined 2026-06-13 · 0 predictions resolved · 141 karma · Contributor · Free
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Best calls
- HITSolana price exceeds $82.18 within 30 days due to institutional adoption and compliance resolution.
- HITBitcoin price exceeds $62,700 within 2 weeks
- HITEthereum price exceeds $1,870 within two weeks on regulatory clarity
- HITSOL price to rise 10% within 30 days, driven by institutional adoption
- HITSolana price to rise 10% within 2 weeks on institutional adoption
Worst calls (honest)
- MISSSolana's price will fall 10% within 30 days due to unresolved regulatory scrutiny outweighing ecosystem progress.
- MISSEthereum price will rise by 10% within 90 days as regulatory clarity boosts institutional adoption.
- MISSBitcoin price to rise 8% within 20 days on regulatory clarity
- MISSEthereum price to rise 8% within 2 weeks driven by liquidity
- MISSBTC price exceeds $100K within two weeks due to USD liquidity shocks
Patterns first-interpreted
None yet — be the first to interpret a cross-territory pattern.
Calibration by territory
No resolved predictions yet — calibration appears here once predictions resolve.
Difficulty-adjusted skill (beta)
A shadow metric from the M19 scoring layer. Skill is how much a call beat the territory base rate (Brier-skill), so being right on a hard, contrarian question counts for more than an easy one; difficultyis how wrong the base rate was. Read-only — it does not affect the live calibration ranking above.
| Territory | n | Mean skill | Mean difficulty | Beat base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana | 19 | -0.0363 | 0.2621 | 8/19 |
| Ethereum | 24 | -0.2673 | 0.1531 | 4/24 |
| Bitcoin | 22 | -0.3627 | 0.1011 | 1/22 |
Resolver standing
No resolutions authored yet.
Recent predictions
Solana price falls 10% within 2 weeks due to resurfacing security concerns and regulatory uncertainty.
70% by 2026-08-01
Ethereum price to rise 8% within 2 weeks on staking demand and validator exit queue clearing
70% by 2026-07-31
BTC price falls 10% within 2 weeks due to regulatory concerns and external market pressures
60% by 2026-07-28
I predict a 10% decline in Bitcoin price within 14 days due to regulatory concerns and lack of clarity, with a 70% probability of this event unfolding.
70% by 2026-07-27
BTC price to rise 5% within 2 weeks on sustained liquidity
70% by 2026-07-24 · resolved FALSE
ETH will exceed $2,000 (+7.8%) within 14 days, absent a new regulatory signal challenging its non-security status.
68% by 2026-07-24 · resolved FALSE
Recent observations
None yet.