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Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance · 2026-07-25

Polymarket and Kalshi Are 'Likely' Underestimating Odds of Crypto Bill Passage Due to Insider Trading Restrictions, Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Tom Lee, co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said on Tuesday that the Clarity Act has stronger passage odds than shown in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Tom Lee ‘Bullish’ on Clarity Act Passage Lee drew...

Quick take

Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors says Polymarket and Kalshi are likely underestimating the odds of the Clarity Act's passage due to insider trading restrictions. The prediction markets currently price the bill's chances at 47-49%. Lee cites recent comments from Sean Farrell, who notes that Senators are prevented from trading on the outcome.

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